Why it's useful WAR quantifies each player's value in terms of a specific numbers of wins. More from Advanced Stats. Connect with MLB. All rights reserved. Instead, focus on how to use it. You see, WAR puts a number to the amount of wins a player adds to his team's win total, and well, what's a more basic stat than a "W?
In , Braun posted a 7. You'll remember that the NL MVP race was a heated battle between—no real surprise here—Braun and Kemp, which Braun ultimately won in an extremely close vote. Point being, regardless of which of the two you think the winner should have been, WAR pretty much told us who the top two players were.
So Kemp's 8. For this, once again, we'll turn to FanGraphs , which breaks down the general guidelines for what each range of WAR translates to in terms of performance in a single season:.
This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams," as the FanGraphs glossary page points out. Wanna know how great Mike Trout's rookie season was? Try all-time great: It was the 31st-best year ever at How about comparing two of the best center fielders in MLB history? WAR seems better suited for batters than pitchers.
Personaly, … Read more ». If you add up the WAR for all the players on a team, does it add up to the teams number of wins? If not, is that possible? It does, to a degree. Add up all the WAR for a team and then add an adjustment of around I just looked up Jim Rice on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, and the differences are significant: There are slight differences, even seasonally, in every column, from fielding expected to positional, replacement, and batting unexpected to me.
Can you explain or provide a link to the differences in how the calculations are made? Replacement level is a universal level for each league. This will be a fantastic blog, could you be involved in doing an interview about just how you created it?
If so e-mail me! Does WAR among batters in any way take into account the number of plate appearances a player gets? Am I missing something? But this is prorated for a whole season. So currently McCutchen is a 4. If I compare 2 players at 4. Conversely, if he begins to play poorly, he can see those wins decrease. Next season everyone starts back at 0.
Now that there is a new version of Sierra on this site, is it quite possible that WAR for pitchers is going to be adjusted to be based on that instead of FIP? I think that the people who come up with these statistics and those who put faith in them only have an understanding of baseball afforded them by their Playstations. The problem with WAR is that it is based on some arbitrary numbers.
The positional adjustment is completely arbitrary — who determined the a CF is worth exactly 1. This is an arbitrary adjustment obviously, since the positional adjustments just happen to be in increments of exactly 0. Also, the final number is determined by adding up statistics of different units. Who determined that they can just be added together — molding different units into one single stat?
Is there any verification method for WAR? For example, is there any way of estimating the uncertainty involved with the statistic? If not, it seems somewhat hand-wavy. What has been done, or what is the rationale for believing in WAR?
First of all, thank you very much for this wealth of information! For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals players added up to However, the team finished with 86 wins, which is 38 wins over that base level for a replacement team. Thanks Jesse, I appreciate it. If you take the runs created and compare it to wins over the baseline of 48, the MLB average for would be 7. Therefore, I would say that the ten runs per win method is at fault in this case. However, I would like to compare this with other years to test this.
The opposing pitcher throws a no-hitter and loses yes, he can — a walk, a sac bunt, a stolen base, a sac fly ; who pitched the better game? With the exception of strikeouts and walks; everything a pitcher accomplishes is solely the result of his defense.
This is probably a really dumb question, but is there a reason that only FA dollars being spent are used to determine how much each win above replacement is worth in dollars? Why do we not use total MLB salary or 25 Man roster salary? To: John Ogrin. I know exactly what you mean that every geek thinks their Bill James. To be honest I have never heard any human being, even at Yankee Stadium, in all three of them where I have been watching BB games since the s say Mariano Rivers is the best pitcher ever.
As a matter I have never any say he was the best Yankee pitcher ever. Just to nit pick. Have to nit pick to get ready for pitchers and catchers. Even after the Giants huge win yesterday when the Giants got revenge for In we … Read more ». So that means he is eight wins better than a minor league or waiver wire player. So your top minor league pitcher is going to win 16 games?
Verlander won Set me straight. By the way, I … Read more ». Would he have won 16 games? That sounds about right to me. No other pitcher on the team made it to 16 wins. In 23 starts they combined for 4 wins. Still new to the advanced statistics so this was very interesting. However, I am a little confused by the constant use of WAR in the player projections for I think I need to see the counting stats in addition to just WAR.
WAR is a joke for one major reason. The 10 runs equals 1 win stat. Too arbitrary as if a win has to be a blow out to count. Also, SABR has no stats for clutch play which decides winning and losing in that not all runs or wins are equal. SABR does indeed have stats for clutch play. For example… if a player plays first base for games and averages. Particularly for teams that have a lot of depth and cash flow, even a backup level player is usually capable of … Read more ».
Tell me how any stat can be taken seriously when we are saying those two guys have had an equal season up to this point. This may be a stupid question, but is there any league adjustment for WAR? This WAR thing is just one more reason to put all the saberchucklheadds in a room and nuke them. A real talent evaluator can tell how good a player is by watching him play. Baseball is a business and you have to manufacture a product that fans want to pay money to come see play.
The reason fans come out to support there team is simple, because they win. Owners pay statisticians to analyze players contributions in an attempt to create a more accurate formula with an outcome that translates into victories.
Ideally the end result of these stats and formulas at the end of the day lead to victories and victories lead to attendance, attendance leads to money. In … Read more ». Professional baseball has always been a money making enterprise. The owners banked on the players primarily playing for the love of the game from the beginning until the reserve clause was found to be hollow.
Statistics are just another means that people use to understand a complex world through simplification. In baseball, they will never be able to completely gauge a players worth. WAR is therefore useful but flawed. Pitching is defense.
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